India's Opposition Leaders Are Brave to Contest Against Modi

Opposition leaders reportedly risk jail for contesting against Modi’s party in India's parliamentary elections

April 19, 2024

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is trying to kill Arvind Kejriwal, alleged a leader of Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party. Kejriwal, who is the Chief Minister of Delhi, is among the politicians opposing Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Indian parliamentary elections, which began today and will stretch over the next six weeks.

Kejriwal has been imprisoned without trial since March 21, one month before the elections, on allegations of corruption made by the Enforcement Directorate (ED), an investigative agency of the government of India. His lawyer says that he is being denied access to the medications needed to treat his diabetes.  

From 2014 - when Narendra Modi first became Prime Minister – till 2022, opposition leaders accounted for roughly 95% of those investigated by the ED according to a study by the Indian Express.  

The study, based on court records and other documents from those eight years, found that 115 of the 121 politicians investigated by the ED were those who opposed Modi and his BJP government. This was a four-fold increase in the total number of such investigations compared to those during the previous Congress Party led government’s rule from 2004 to 2014. Equally important, opposition leaders were not the sole target of the 26 investigations under the Congress government; only half those investigated were opposition leaders.

Since the Indian Express study in 2022, several more opposition leaders have been jailed or face investigations by the ED, including Arvind Kejriwal. He was first elected Chief Minister of Delhi in 2015 defeating Modi’s BJP; he was re-elected in 2019.   

A graduate from IIT Kharagpur, Kejriwal is a mechanical engineer by profession. Earlier, he worked as an official in the Government of India’s Income Tax Department. 

Apparently Kejriwal chose to go to prison rather than switch his support to Modi’s BJP. Twenty five other opposition leaders were not as brave. Since 2014, they switched their support to the BJP, according to another study by The Indian Express. For all but two of them, supporting the BJP “translated into reprieve” with the investigation being closed or stalled, according to the newspaer.

Six of the 25 opposition politicians facing ED investigations moved to the BJP this year alone, weeks before the parliamentary elections, according to the Indian Express.

In January, Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar, switched from opposing to supporting the BJP. Kumar is the leader of some backward castes in the electorally crucial state which accounts for 40 of the 543 parliamentary seats. Over his long political career, Kumar, 73-years-old, has switched his support from the opposition to the BJP and back again several times.

Prior to his latest switch to supporting the BJP, Kumar ruled Bihar with support of the opposition parties. Last year, Amit Shah, the Home Minister in Modi’s cabinet, said that Kumar had joined hands with a “party of scamsters…Can a leader, who changes his house repeatedly be trusted?... He is not trustworthy… He has shunned all political principles,” according to The Hindustan Times. The ED, which is investigating Kejriwal and other opposition leaders, is part of Shah’s ministry.  

Apparently, the message from Kejriwal’s arrest was clear to some other opposition leaders who could have helped reduce the BJP’s majority, if not defeat the BJP in the current elections. Key among them is Mayawati, leader of the Bahujan Samaj Party, who has faced major corruption charges in the past.

Mayawati will likely impact the outcome of the elections in Uttar Pradesh (U.P.). This key state accounts for 80 seats in parliament. More important, 17 of the seats are reserved for scheduled or low caste candidates. She has support among the low castes in U.P.

After some initial talks with other opposition leaders, Mayawati said her party will not join the opposition alliance in the parliamentary elections. Apparently, unlike with Nitish Kumar, the BJP prefers Mayawati to contest independently rather than join the BJP-led alliance of parties. This may be because Mayawati’s low caste supporters may vote for her party but not for the BJP. Also, voters from some other castes who back the BJP, may not have voted for Mayawati’s candidates.      

In the 2022 U.P. state legislature elections, Mayawati pursued the same strategy of contesting independently. Her party secured 7% of the votes, thereby splitting the opposition votes and enabling the BJP to win the state elections.

Today, Kejriwal’s lawyer petitioned a court seeking that he be given access to insulin medication to treat his diabetes. The ED said that Kejriwal has been consuming mangoes, sugar, and potato-based foods to deliberately increase his sugar levels. 

"I only use sugar free (an artificial sugar brand) in my tea,” Kejriwal told the court through his lawyer. “ED claimed that I want to increase my blood sugar levels to get bail. Am I going to risk paralysis to get bail?...How petty, political and ridiculous ED can be?”