Chances of an Indian Student Securing U.S. H-1B Work Visa Are One in Fifteen
Indians should verify the job placement rates for foreign graduates of a U.S. university program before taking on major debt to pursue a degree
(Image: courtesy Creative Commons.)
January 12, 2025
In India, several hundred thousand students are currently finalizing applications for admission to advanced degree programs at U.S. universities for the 2025-26 academic year.
Most of them, especially science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) students, believe that earning an advanced degree in the U.S. is their best option. This is because they expect to have a better career in the U.S. than in India.
Also, it is far easier for Indians to get admission to a Master’s or PhD program, at dozens of mid or low ranked U.S. universities, than at a reputed one in India. This is due to a severe lack of capacity of quality advanced degree programs in India, such as at the Indian Institures of Technology.
Many Indians are influenced by the steady stream of stories in the local media about the career success of Indian professionals in the U.S. Such coverage is misleading, perhaps even harmful. It does not point out that those succeeding were among the top 0.1 percent of graduates from India, who then managed to climb intensely competitive job ladders in the U.S.
What the Indian media also ignore are the very low chances for most Indians, even with a STEM degree from a top U.S. university, to find a job in the U.S. This means that most Indians risk being unable to repay the big debt, they take on to fund their U.S. education, and so could lose their family homes put up as collateral for the loan.
Two weeks ago, Indians planning to study - or studying - in the U.S. likely became more optimistic about finding work in America after graduation. This was after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump told the New York Post that he has “always been in favor” of H-1B visas.
Trump’s statement was widely covered in the Indian media as evidence that he supported the position of Elon Musk - his close adviser, Tesla founder and South African immigrant - that the temporary work visa for skilled foreigners provides a big advantage to the American economy. The Indian media stated, without providing any evidence, that there will likely soon be more jobs in the U.S. for Indian professionals, who are the main beneficiaries of the visa.
But, a few days later, Trump made a vague statement that he wants to “have the most competent people in our country,” FoxNews reported. The conservative media outlet pointed out that, during his 2016 presidential election campaign, Trump said "I will end forever the use of the H-1B as a cheap labor program, and institute an absolute requirement to hire American workers first.”
Even if there are no H-1B visa cuts in Trump’s second term, the chances of a student from India finding work on the visa will continue to remain very low: currently one in 15. This is for a graduate with a U.S. Master’s or PhD STEM degree. The chances are far lower for Indians earning an U.S. undergraduate, advanced social science, and MBA degrees.
After years on temporary work visas, an Indian professional currently applying for permanent residency, or green card, faces a decades long wait - in theory perhaps a hundred years. Each year, around 10,000 green cards are issued to Indians while 1.2 million of their fellow citizens wait in line. Indians are at a numerical disadvantage since applicants from each country are allotted a maximum 7% of the 140,000 skills-based green cards issued each year.
Like Musk, executives at major U.S. technology and other companies issue regular statements asking for an increase in H-1B visas and skills-based green cards. Yet, there has been no increase in the number of such visas since 1990. despite the massive financial and lobbying clout of the companies. This is likely because they do not want to anger politicians who seek to protect American jobs through cuts in temporary work visas.
(Image: Courtesy, Creative Commons.)
Here is an outline of the decades long path, with several steep quota barriers along the way, which together sharply diminish the odds of an Indian student securing a green card.
Last year, there were 234,000 Indians studying in the U.S., with nearly 90% of them pursuing Master’s or PhD degrees. Also, there were 98,000 Indian graduates hired in the U.S. on practical training (OPT) visas. Most of them were STEM graduates, with Indians accounting for roughly 80% of all foreigners on STEM OPT visas.
Adjusting these figures on an annual basis shows that an Indian has a one in three chance of being hired on the OPT visa. Foreign graduates, who cannot find such work, have to leave the U.S. within sixty days. This deadline also applies to foreigners with expired work visas or whose work visas get cancelled due to layoffs.
The practical training visa is valid for three years for STEM graduates, assuming they are sponsored by an employer. After their OPT visas expire, Indians can continue working in the U.S. if an employer sponsors them and they win the H-1B visa lottery. In fiscal year 2025, the odds of winning the lottery were one in five: there were 470,000 applicants while 85,000 H-1B visas are granted each year.
A foreigner can work on an H-1B visa for a maximum of six years. They can work longer only if sponsored by an employer for a green card. Overall, the chances of securing a green card, for an Indian STEM graduate of a U.S. university, are far worse than one in 15. This is because not all OPT and H-1B visa holders are sponsored for the next level of work visas.
How bad are the odds of getting a green card can only be a guess. There is no data available on how many OPT visa holders are sponsored for H-1B visas or how many on H-1B visas are sponsored for green cards. The U.S. immigration agency, which should have the data, does not disclose it. Perhaps employers, who use the temporary work visas, may not want such information to be made public.
Companies in the U.S. appear to manage the size of their engineering and other technical workforce largely by combining the supply of Indian graduates of U.S. universities and the hiring flexibility provided by the OPT and H-1B visas.
The swing skilled labor capacity provided by foreigners is evident from hiring and lay off data. In 2022, for instance, the top 30 H-1B employers hired more than 34,000 new H-1B workers, according to a report by the Economic Policy Institute. In 2022, and the first quarter of 2023, the top 30 H-1B employers also laid off at least 85,000 employees on H-1B visas.
Most of the technical professionals on H-1B visas, who are laid off, are Indians, including those waiting in line for a green card. In fact, the number of Indians, on temporary work visas, who are effectively laid off is much higher.
For many Indians on OPT visas, employment in the U.S. ends after two or three years, or after six years for H-1B visa holders. Such job cuts, which likely total several thousand each year, are typically not disclosed by employers on technical grounds that an employee’s work visa had expired.
Indian information technology (IT) companies play a major role in managing the supply of Indians on temporary U.S. work visas. Last year, for instance, three of the top ten companies securing H-1B visas were Indian IT companies: Infosys with 8,140 visas, Tata Consultancy 5,274; and HCL America 2,953. Cognizant, another IT outsourcing company, got 6,321 H-1B visas. While its head office is in New Jersey, U.S., three quarters of Cognizant’s 341,000 employees are based in India. These four companies together accounted for more than a quarter of the H-1B visas issued last year.
(Image: courtesy Creative Commons.)
In June and July, most Indians, who are admitted to U.S. universities, will be taking on loans to pay for the tuition fees, boarding and other costs. The loans could total $200,000 or more, with family homes required as collateral by the Indian banks. The annual interest rates are 8% or higher.
Indians, who need a loan to study in the U.S., should only pursue advanced STEM degrees, preferably a PhD, and that too at a top ranked university. Currently, there is high demand from employers in the U.S. for graduates with advanced degrees, especially PhDs, in artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer science, statistics, and math.
Indian applicants should be aware that U.S. universities, including the top-ranked ones, apparently seek to generate revenues by offering Master’s degrees in dozens of programs, including some in STEM, which do not improve a student’s job prospects. In fact, a Wall Street Journal study found that even U.S. citizens, who earn such degrees, cannot find jobs and end up burdened for life with tens of thousands of dollars in education debt.
U.S. universities do not disclose job placement data for many of their Master’s and other advanced programs. This should be a warning sign for Indians that they should avoid applying to such programs, even at a top university.
Even for programs at top universities, which publish job placement data, it is important for Indians to find out how many foreign graduates were hired on practical training visas. They should also double check on such OPT job placements by talking to current students and recent graduates.
It is worth spending a couple of thousand dollars to visit a U.S. university in May to find out about OPT jobs, before taking on any loans to study there. This should be done instead of paying consultants in India, even those with degrees from top U.S. universities, who offer guidance to Indians seeking admission to U.S. and other foreign universities. Such consultants only speak about the number of their clients who get admitted, ignoring the risk of taking on debt. Also, they say that Indian students have good job prospects, after graduating from a U.S. university, without offering any proof.
Indians should ignore scholarships from U.S. universities which cover only 10% to 20% of the total costs, especially those offered for programs with low OPT placements. Students may view such scholarships, especially from the top universities, as evidence of their special talent. But they are typically offered to try and convince students to accept admission to a program, even if it requires them to borrow a sizeable sum to cover the rest of their costs.
After selecting a program, which has a high OPT placement rate, an Indian should only take on debt which can be repaid by taking up a job in India, after earning a U.S. degree. This is in case they are unable to find work in the U.S. or some other country. They can thus avoid risking losing their parents home, which is typically a family’s main asset in India, to the bank which lent the money.
An Indian should decide to study at a U.S. university only after comparing the potential career opportunities, which can be lucrative for those with highly skilled and advanced talent, against the one in fifteen odds of finding temporary work visas and the risk of losing the family home to repay the education loan.
(Updated January 14, 2025.)